Market Update - March 2024

The spring market in Denver is off to a great start. It seems that sellers are taking the prospect of interest rate cuts to heart and starting to list their homes in spite of the “rate lock” effect. New listings increased 16.27% above February 2024 but they were still down about 3.28% from March of last year.

You may have heard rumblings about the NAR ruling, if you’d like to read our thoughts and opinions on the settlement and its consequences check out our blog post on the topic.

Will Rates Fall?

The big question is if there will actually be 3 rate cuts in 2024. Job growth has been really strong, data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that February marked the 38th consecutive month of job growth in our economy, which is the fifth longest period of employment expansion in the history of our economy and the longest stretch of unemployment figures below 4% in over 50 years.

After the jobs report came out Jerome Powell stated that there would be no interest rate cuts in March, and in the days following the Federal Reserve meeting two other members of the Fed board came out and stated that they are not sure if inflation and job numbers will support any rate cuts at all this year.

Obviously markets reacted to that news and the stock market had the worst week it’s had in a year. Investors are anxious that the Fed will not actually cut rates in 2024 which could lead to some pain for large corporations who will eventually be forced to refinance their debt.

Whether or not there will be rate cuts depends heavily on inflation trends and the jobs reports that the BLS puts out. The US Federal Trade Commission also recommended that Congress scrutinize grocery profits as the FTC released a report that found that large market participants like Kroger accelerated and distorted the negative effects of the pandemic to increase profit, also known as price gouging, which they absolutely did all over the country.

I bring this up because grocery prices are part of the inflation calculation and simply cutting interest rates with no congressional oversight into corporate price gouging likely won’t solve the inflation problem. How is it $8.50 for a bottle of Cholula at the grocery store? Price gouging! Check out Kroger’s stock price, it was about $29 a share before the pandemic and today it’s at $55.32 which is way outpacing inflation.

Source: Yahoo Finance

Crazy, right? That’s probably enough waxing philosophical on the economy for now.

Market Anecdotes

In March we saw a flurry of market activity in spite of intense weather, spring break, and Easter, all of which normally contribute to some sleepiness in the market. We had high open house traffic, even on Easter weekend.

We also saw competition at all price points below $2M for properties that are nicely updated and priced well. Dated properties or properties that are overpriced continue to sit on the market longer which is driving up average days on market. The competition for properties priced between $500k - $750k can be very intense as this is the most active segment of the market from a pending and closed listings perspective.

Buyers tend to have high expectations of properties because the cost of borrowing is so high. We’re seeing a lot of pushback on properties that were updated in the early 2000s - buyers think these updates look dated now while many sellers think a kitchen remodel done in 2004 is still chic and fresh despite being 20 years old. Warm color palettes with beiges, skinny horizontal glass tile backsplashes, and tuscan style tile work and cabinetry are all turnoffs for buyers looking for updated move-in ready homes.

The Stats

The number of pending listings is often used as an indicator for buyer demand. In March 2024 pending listings were at the highest level they’ve been since August 2022 when interest rates first started increasing. This is indicative of an uptick in buyer activity and a resilient and fast-paced market.

3,106 pending listings in March 2024 and 3,178 pending listings in August 2022.

Average Closed Price

Average Closed Price for Detached Single Family homes was $776,919 which is a 4.34% increase Year-over-Year (YoY) and a 3.19% increase from February 2024.

Average Days on Market

Average Days on Market (DOM) was flat YoY at 39 which is a huge increase from 2021 and 2022 numbers, but has been around this level since interest rates increased.

Local Topics

Denver approved a blanket rezoning of the Hale Neighborhood to allow for Accessory Dwelling Units (ADUs) to be built which eliminates the need for a homeowner to apply to rezone their property in order to build an ADU. More and more neighborhoods in Denver keep changing these zoning regulations to respond to the need for more housing in the city.

The Colorado state legislature approved Senate Bill 94 which will require landlords to finish serious repairs within 7 days and less serious issues within 14 days. The bill aims to close a bunch of loopholes in the Warrant of Habitability Law from 2008 and is headed to Governor Polis’s desk for review.

The City of Denver released a budget plan showing exactly how the city plans to fund programs for new migrant arrivals through the end of 2024. They have already spent $25M of the $90M plan with the bulk of the funds going to Shelter & Housing. You can check out a breakdown of the budget here.

The NAR Settlement - Overview & Thoughts

You may have seen news break across the internet on the National Association of Realtors (NAR) settlement last week with misleading clickbait headlines like “No more 6% real estate commissions” or “Realtors Reckon With a Seismic Shift to How They Get Paid.” Since the news broke I’ve had several people reach out asking what my opinion is on the settlement and whether I’m worried about the future of our industry.

Unfortunately, most of the articles that I’ve read about this settlement demonstrate a lack of understanding of the real estate business model, what role the National Association of Realtors plays in day-to-day business for brokers, as well as what the verdict actually means for us in Colorado.

The old courthouse in st. louis, missouri

What is NAR?

NAR stands for the National Association of Realtors, essentially a large national lobbying organization that real estate brokers pay annual dues to be members of. A broker must be a member of NAR to call themselves a “Realtor” otherwise they are referred to as a Real Estate Broker or Broker Associate.

NAR has a bunch of rules and regulations on how Realtors should behave ethically since we have a fiduciary duty to act in the best interest of our clients while also having an ethical duty to other members of NAR to treat each other with respect and to cooperate with each other to serve our clients best interests.

In a lot of other states NAR runs the show in real estate. There are many states that don’t have a Department of Regulatory Affairs regulating real estate transactions or brokers, and the licensure and contracts and forms used in real estate transactions are all provided by NAR. NAR-affiliated Realtor boards also own and operate a ton of Multiple Listing Services (MLS) which is where consumer apps like Zillow and Redfin pull listing data from to display listings.

Brokers join NAR for a number of reasons - some brokerages require all their brokers to also be Realtors (like the first brokerage I hung my license at), some states only have Realtors selling homes, and sometimes you’re forced to join a Realtor board even when you don’t want to (looking at you, Summit County Association of Realtors) because it’s insanely expensive and you’re already a member of another NAR-affiliated Realtor board (Denver Metro Association of Realtors) but the Summit County MLS is a NAR-affiliated MLS that requires for you to be a member of their Realtor board in order to get broker access to property listings in their area. True story.

NAR offers its members access to a complimentary legal hotline where Realtors can speak with a real estate attorney free of charge. Having a NAR membership also gets you discounts on products and services often associated with the real estate industry.


Why was NAR Sued?

There was a large class-action lawsuit against NAR as well as several large national brokerages in Missouri claiming that they engaged in anti-competitive behavior by requiring sellers to pay buyer broker commissions as part of their listing agreement. This has been standard operating protocol in the real estate industry for decades which was largely pushed as the norm by NAR.

The brokerage firms came under fire for requiring sellers of all listings at their firm to pay a buyer broker commission and literally not allowing their brokers to list properties at their firms with buyer broker commissions set below 2.8%. I worked at one of these brokerages for a very brief period several years ago and this rule was spelled out in the office policy manual.

NAR affiliated Realtor boards also own and operate a number of Multiple Listing Services (MLS) throughout the country that require a buyer’s broker compensation to be paid by a seller in order for a listing to be configured in the MLS.

The lawsuit alleged that requiring sellers to pay buyer’s brokers artificially drove up the price of real estate and led to buyer’s brokers being overpaid for their services. Whether or not that’s true remains to be seen, but were these practices anti-competitive and collusive? Absolutely.

The main terms of the settlement are twofold:

  • NAR agreed to create a new MLS rule prohibiting offers of compensation on the MLS. This would mean that offers of compensation could not be communicated via an MLS, but they could continue to be an option consumers could pursue off-MLS through negotiation and consultation with real estate professionals.

  • NAR also agreed to create a new rule requiring MLS participants working with buyers to enter into written agreements with their buyers before the buyer tours a home.

How does it work in Colorado?

Colorado is not a state where NAR runs the show. In the Denver Metro area our primary MLS is ReColorado which is NOT a NAR affiliate and does not currently require a buyer’s co-operative compensation amount to be input in order to put a listing in the MLS. Nor do they require brokers to be a member of a Realtor board in order to be a member of their MLS. In other words, ReColorado is cool.

The contracts and forms that we use in Colorado were created by the Department of Regulatory Affairs (DORA) with input from state lawmakers. Our listing forms already had the buyer’s broker compensation field as an optional section that can be edited and changed however a seller wants in the contract to list their home with a broker.

Put simply, a lot of the things that were commonplace in Missouri transactions aren’t commonplace in Colorado. Until the settlement has been approved by the courts there isn’t much of an update for how it will change things in our state. We attended multiple webinars with ReColorado and a real estate attorney about the settlement and they all said essentially the same thing - we have our own contracts in Colorado that are not NAR contracts and forms and real estate commissions have always been negotiable on both sides of the transaction.

ReColorado will likely be removing the fields from their MLS that show if a listing is offering a buyer’s agent commission. Listing brokerage firms may display this information on their own websites but the field will no longer be an input option in the MLS.

My guess is we’ll see some changes to the standard Colorado State Contract to Buy and Sell Real Estate that more cleanly and clearly define commission splits in the contract itself, but that remains to be seen. Currently commission language and rates are defined in the Exclusive Right contracts that clients sign with their brokers which are property agnostic.

What does this mean for Sellers?

Real Estate Agent Commissions for both listing and buyer’s agents have traditionally been paid by the seller out of the net proceeds from a seller’s settlement at closing. As a seller you are not required to pay a buyer’s broker commission as a condition of listing your home, but we strongly recommend offering a buyer’s broker co-operative compensation of some sort.

If you do NOT offer a buyer’s broker commission we can still list your home in the MLS, but it could dramatically decrease the pool of buyers who are interested in touring and buying your home. Buyers who are working with agents have signed an Exclusive Right to Buy contract with an agent that states that if the broker’s commission is not paid by the seller then it must be paid by the buyer themself.

Currently buyer’s agent commissions cannot be baked into the loan a buyer takes out. Paying an agent commission out of cash that a buyer was planning on bringing to closing could reduce their pre-approval amount, push them below the required loan-to-value ratio for avoiding having to pay mortgage insurance, and eliminate eligibility for buyers who would otherwise be eligible to buy your home. There are ways to get around this in the way an offer is written on a property, but not without inflating the purchase price on a home in exchange for seller concessions off of closing costs on the chance that you think it could appraise for more than the list price.

Offering a buyer’s agent commission on your listing when selling your home is absolutely still allowed in the wake of this ruling and it is a really good way to get a pool of qualified and serious buyers in the door on the day your home hits the market.

What does this mean for Buyers?

From where we’re sitting today it looks like buyers are the ones who actually get the short end of the stick in all of this. It is incredibly expensive to buy a home to begin with, many listings are competitive due to low inventory, and if you approach a listing agent directly to have them write an offer on their listing for you they must either:

  • cease their agency relationship with their sellers (if it’s appropriate to do so) and serve as a Transaction Broker who essentially sits in the middle of the 2 parties and facilitates the transaction while refraining from advocating for either party

  • maintain their agency relationship with the sellers and continue to advocate for their best interest while treating the buyer as a “customer,” which means that come inspection negotiations it could be inexperienced first-time homebuyers going up against industry professionals and sellers who are much more familiar with home ownership.

In a competitive market like the one in Denver being an unrepresented homebuyer is difficult and can even be scary. Many homes receive multiple offers in their first week on the market and good buyer agents are able to build rapport with a listing agent to find out what a truly competitive offer looks like on a property. I tell my buyers that I can usually get a listing agent to tell me what needs to be done to win in a multiple offer situation if they’ve found their dream home, but buyers may not always be willing to write offers on those terms. Unrepresented buyers may have the benefit of not having a buyer’s agent to pay but that’s a moot point if you never actually win a contract on a home.

First time homebuyers usually don’t know much about homeownership and home maintenance. They don’t understand what remodel projects are possible nor do they understand the costs to fix or change various items in the home. Touring properties with a buyer’s agent is extremely helpful for buyers to actually realize what is and is not possible with a property and to help identify any potential inspection issues or things to follow up with the listing agent on. I think that unrepresented buyers are at huge risk of getting in over their heads on a property whether it be from wanting to do something to it that is not possible because of construction costs or zoning rules, or getting through inspection negotiation without getting taken advantage of.

If the status quo moving forward is for buyers to pay their own brokers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac need to find a way to make this more affordable to homebuyers as part of the lending process. A good buyer’s agent is worth their weight in gold, and you get what you pay for.

What does this mean for Brokers?

Brokers need to be better about clearly communicating the fact that broker commission amounts are negotiable on both sides of the transaction to prospective clients. While this has always been the case it is not always made clear to the consumers involved in the transaction that they have options for negotiation before they sign a contract. We live in a country that likes to squeeze consumers, so more transparency is always a good thing in my book.

I do not think this is the end of real estate commissions for buyers, nor do I think that it should be categorized as a “seismic shift” in how we get paid. At the end of the day we render valuable services for our clients in exchange for pay, just like any other profession. Brokers who bring value to their clients will continue to do so. Brokers who are already struggling may churn out of the industry. Good brokers will adapt to this new environment. It’s our job.

Market Update - February 2024

ReColorado and DMAR released market stats for February 2024 and spring has sprung in the Denver real estate market! Buyer activity picked up and nicely updated detached houses listed at or below $650k saw huge showing traffic and multiple offers in their first weekend on the market.

Inventory increased for both detached and attached listings, but it is still very low by historical standards. The average number of active listings in February from 1985 - 2023 was 12,671. February 2024 had 5,511 active listings which is 56.5% below that average.

Anecdotes

We saw a lot of intense competition with our buyers this month. We wrote 3 contracts on nicely updated detached houses that went up against many other offers (one listing had 10 other offers) and our buyers lost all 3 even after bidding up the list price $25k - $45k. I imagine this scenario varies by price point, all 3 of these houses were under $650k. We hosted several open houses on our listings and were absolutely blown away by the traffic at open houses.

I think buyers are sick of sitting on the sidelines waiting for interest rates to come down and buyer competition has picked up dramatically from what we saw in 2023.

The Stats

Average closed price for detached single family homes in Denver Metro was $777,074 which was a 4.16% increase over February 2023

Average Days on Market was 46, down from 50 in January and down 6.12% YoY

Close-Price-to-List-Price Ratio

One metric that we keep a close eye on is the close-price-to-list-price ratio. This metric is basically a proxy for the existence of bidding wars in the market. A value of 100% means that on average listings closed at their asking price, anything above 100% indicates that listings closed for over their asking price and likely had multiple offers, while a value below 100% indicates that offers were below asking price.

In February 2024 the closed-price-to-list-price ratio was 100% meaning that on average listings closed at their asking price. For reference, this ratio was 103.9% in 2022 when there were bidding wars happening all over the place.

Local Topics

Colorado state lawmakers introduced House Bill 24-1152 to try and make it easier to build Accessory Dwelling Units on lots zoned for single family residential. The bill would give homeowners in certain areas the right to build an ADU, creates a grant program to help communities rethink their ADU policies and make them more friendly for ADU development, and prohibits cities from restricting the construction or conversion of an ADU on single family lots. You can find more information about it here.

DMAR reports that attached housing in the metro area is now officially a buyer’s market due to soaring HOA dues, insurability issues, and high mortgage interest rates. There are currently over 1,000 attached housing units on the market below $500k. Attached housing is typically viewed as “the new starter home” but the insurability issues impacting HOA dues paired with high rates have made buying a condo incredibly expensive from a monthly payment perspective versus renting.

Speaking of renting, median rents for attached housing fell to $1,495 in February from $1,515 in January. Median rents for one-bedrooms decreased, but two and three-bedroom median rents increased. Available multi-family rental listings were up approximately 5% in February versus January.

Interest Rate Buydowns & Seller Concessions

If you (or anyone you know) have bought or sold a home in the last 9 months you have probably heard about Seller Concessions or Rate Buydowns as tools for reducing high mortgage payments. In October 2023 mortgage interest rates spiked up to nearly 8% which caused a slowdown in buyer activity due to the high costs associated with getting a mortgage.

Over the weeks that followed nearly 60% of closed transactions in the Denver Metro area had seller concessions negotiated as part of the deal with 45% of those concessions going towards buyer’s closing costs for a rate buydown.


What is a Seller Concession?

Simply put, they're expenses that the seller agrees to cover on behalf of the buyer. In the Contract to Buy & Sell Real Estate there is a section where a buyer can ask for a seller concession up-front which appears as a credit on their final settlement statement to cover a range of costs associated with buying a home. The buyer receives the credit off of their closing costs, which frees up the cash they would have otherwise had to bring to closing.

Eligible costs that can be covered by concessions typically falling into two main categories:

  1. Closing Costs - These are fees paid at the end of the buying process to finalize the transaction. They can include things like:

    • Discount Points / Rate Buydowns

    • Loan Origination fees

    • Appraisal fees

    • Title insurance premiums

    • Escrow fees

    • Recording fees

  2. Prepaid Expenses - These are upfront costs associated with owning the home, such as:

    • Prorated Property taxes

    • Homeowners Insurance premiums

    • Homeowner's association (HOA) fees

Why Would a Seller Offer a Concession?

Smart sellers offer or are amenable to concessions to make their listing more competitive and to help buyers offset the costs of higher interest rates. Sellers may also offer concessions to offset the costs of future repairs or to use as leverage to negotiate a higher offer price.

Offering a seller concession can also help incentivize more buyers to write an offer than reducing the list price. A $10,000 reduction in list price amortized over 30 years will save a buyer ~$20 a month but $10,000 off their closing costs is a substantial decrease in the amount of money a buyer needs to have on-hand today to buy a house. The net to the seller is the same in these 2 circumstances, but it can make a huge difference to a buyer.

What is a Rate Buydown?

A buyer can contribute extra cash upfront to the lender to "buy down" their interest rate for a specific period of time, usually the first few years of your mortgage but they can be for the entirety of the term as well. The costs associated vary based on market dynamics, creditability, and the type of buydown (temporary vs. permanent) that the buyer is doing. The lower rate can save the buyer hundreds of dollars a month depending on the terms of their loan.

For example, let's say the normal interest rate is 6.5%, but the lender will let you buy down the rate to 5.75%, which costs $10,000 up-front to do so. That may sound expensive, but if your broker can negotiate to get the seller to cover some or all of that expense buyers may be enticed to write offers when they’d otherwise be on the sidelines.

Putting It Together

Mortgage math in the market these days is complex because of all the possible loan scenarios that can play out depending on how much money a buyer can bring to closing. When we’re writing offers we are always checking in with the buyer’s lender to make sure that everyone is on the same page about the different things we could leverage to make a contract work for a buyer.

Several months ago we worked with a (very) part-time broker representing a buyer on one of our listings. Our sellers were amenable to offering a concession with a full-price offer after their home sat on the market for a month, but the buyer’s agent didn’t seem to understand anything about how her buyer could leverage a seller concession to make the loan terms more favorable. She wrote a crazy lowball offer and then didn’t accept our counter which was at list price with a decently sized seller concession.

Fortunately for everyone involved the lender could tell that the buyer’s broker didn’t understand what he could do with a seller concession, so he ended up reaching out to me directly to discuss possibilities if we could get a concession amount that was really close to what I’d been telling the agent the sellers would be amenable to all along. He was able to talk the buyer through all the different loan options she had with a seller concession and got her to work with her agent to resubmit an offer that our sellers accepted. I can honestly say it was the first time I’ve had a lender essentially broker a deal for their buyer, which I was grateful for, but it also left me feeling a little frustrated.

There are several lessons in that anecdote, but the biggest one is that you shouldn’t work with a broker who isn’t regularly showing properties, talking to other brokers, and writing contracts in this market. Market conditions are changing weekly and working with an inexperienced or part-time broker or lender could cost you more than you realize.

Market Update - January 2024

ReColorado and DMAR released market stats for January 2024. The big buzz in the industry is that mortgage rates dropped to ~6.7% in early January from a high of 7.8% in October, which drove a spike in buyer activity. Mortgage applications increased 39% above October lows due to lower interest rates and seasonality.

Showing traffic, offers, and pending contracts on detached single family homes priced under $600,000 picked up drastically in mid-January for houses that had been sitting on the market over the holidays and many new listings received multiple offers.

Anecdotally, we felt a noticeable pick-up in buyer activity. Tara had some buyers looking all over Aurora around $650k in Mid-January and one Saturday she showed them 6 houses, 3 of which already had multiple offers in the first 3 days on market. One of the home inspectors we partner with said that the third week of January was the busiest week he’d had since June.

Houses that are priced well, clean, staged, and nicely updated are getting offers quickly. There appears to still be a bit of a disconnect with sellers on pricing their homes, as listings that hit the market that are overpriced even by only $10k-$20k will sit for weeks.

The Stats

Average closed price for detached single family homes in Denver Metro was $734,836 which is a 4.48% increase over January 2023.

  • New listings were up 14.73% YoY in January but still down 22.48% from January 2021 numbers

  • Average Days on Market was 50 for Detached Single Family homes in January, up 2.04% YoY but up 163.16% from 2022 averages

  • The average number of active listings in January from 1985 - 2023 was 12,215. January 2024 had 4,871 active listings, well below that average

  • Flippers and developers are having a bad time. Higher mortgage rates paired with labor constraints and long waits for building permits has made flipping less appealing and many flippers are exiting the market. It has also made investment properties less lucrative.

Close-Price-to-List Price Ratio

One metric that we keep a close eye on is the close-price-to-list-price ratio. This metric is basically a proxy for the existence of bidding wars in the market. A value of 100% means that on average listings closed at their asking price, anything above 100% indicates that listings closed for over their asking price and likely had multiple offers, while a value below 100% indicates that offers were below asking price.

In January 2024 the closed-price-to-list-price ratio was 98.34% meaning that on average listings closed 1.66% below their asking price which translates to roughly $12,200 below list price on average. For reference, this ratio was 102.19% in 2022 when there were bidding wars happening all over the place.

Local Topics

The Colorado House introduced a bill that will classify any property used as a short-term rental for more than 90 days a year as a commercial property from a taxation perspective, increasing the tax rate from 6.8% to 29%. Mountain communities are up-in-arms over this proposal and it has been hotly contested by short-term rental owners and property managers alike. If it passes we’re guessing a bunch of urban STRs will be converted to long-term rentals and it may even drive an increase in listings hitting the market.

Property tax valuations went out after the big increases in assessed property values in 2023. Colorado has launched a program to the general public with the goal of helping offset some of these higher tax bills for property owners. Homeowners who experienced an increase in property taxes of more than 4% over the last two years may defer some of the annual payment up to $10,000. Here is a link to more information on the program.

Xcel Energy in all their greedy glory wants Colorado residents to pay them more money to offset their costs on improvements for both gas distribution and the electric grid. They are proposing a rate hike on natural gas that has nothing to do with the cost of natural gas and everything to do with improving their infrastructure. Yeah, you read that right. Xcel Energy made $8.347B (as in Billion with a B) in profits in 2023 and they think YOU need to pay them 7.4% - 10% more on your already high utility bill to improve THEIR infrastructure. Pretty outrageous, right? The Public Utilities Commission has to approve the rate hikes, you can submit a formal complaint to the PUC here and if you want some content for the complaint to paste right in place this reddit thread has some good suggestions.

Speaking of Xcel Energy, they are facing nearly 300 lawsuits for their role in starting the Marshall Fire - the worst fire in Colorado history that killed 2 people, destroyed over 1,000 buildings, killed over 1,000 pets trapped inside homes, and displaced over 37,500 people. In June 2023 it was determined that a sparking Xcel power line was one of the contributing causes for the fire. Good thing they make so much money.

There is a migrant crisis unfolding in Denver, which has taken in nearly 40,000 migrants. That’s the most per capita of any city in the nation and it is dramatically straining Denver’s municipal budget. Mayor Mike Johnston has made multiple requests for federal funding from the White House and Congress, which failed to secure funding after a proposed bill was unable to pass. Johnston has since announced up to $5M in cuts to parks and recreation and the DMV. If you’re interested in helping migrants here is a list of ways to do that.


Residential Solar Panel Leases in Real Estate Transactions

Time magazine just put out a fascinating article about the precarious state of the residential solar industry. It’s worth a read for anyone thinking about getting solar installed on their house. If you don’t want to read whole thing, here are the highlights that I found most interesting:

  • The residential solar industry is struggling to stay afloat - In late 2023 more than 100 residential solar dealers and installers in the US declared bankruptcy, a 600% increase over the previous 3 years combined.

  • Big solar companies have been bundling solar leases as asset-backed securities and reselling them while also retaining and reselling tax credits to large corporations since the solar companies technically “own” the solar panels on homes with leases.

  • Because of this dynamic, solar companies have been desperate to acquire new customers in pursuit of growth leading to misleading and deliberately opaque sales tactics and contracts, which hurt homeowners.

  • Solar panel installation in Europe is roughly 50% cheaper than it is in the US, because the system in the US is convoluted with intermediaries (sales and finance people) that don’t necessarily need to be there.

When solar companies go under they are acquired and consolidated, which is troublesome for people buying and selling the homes these leased panels are installed on.

What is a Solar Lease?

Solar power is a viable form of energy generation and that could eventually meet the residential demand for electricity if it was widely deployed. Seems like a good thing for the planet and for homeowners, right? The problem is that the up-front cost of solar panel installation is really high.

To get around this and acquire new customers solar companies created a business model where customers “lease” the panels that are installed on their homes where they pay a low up-front installation fee and then pay a monthly fee to the solar company for some term, usually 20 years for use of the panels. The solar company retains ownership of the panels and is responsible for servicing them if any issues ever arise. Leased solar systems currently account for around 70% of residential solar installations.

Sketchy Sales Tactics

If you do any amount of research into solar leases you’ll find that most companies who are going door-to-door selling them have pretty lousy reputations. The industry is fraught with misleading sales pitches and salespeople outright lying about the cost of the products, efficiency of the products, availability of the products given the current electrical panel and setup of the home (I have a client whose panel started on fire because of a shoddy solar install) and services that the company provides.

About a year ago my dad called me to “pick my brain” about getting solar panels installed on his house. A salesperson from a solar company knocked on their door and launched into a whole spiel about how they could get them installed for relatively cheap, how durable the panels are these days, and how it’s a great investment in their home. The salesperson told him that installing solar on their house would instantaneously increase the value of their house by 4% and he wanted to know if that was true.

I scoffed so loudly that it woke up the dog sleeping under my desk. A 4% increase in value in your house because of a solar panel lease? That’s seriously what she said? Absolutely not. Ask any real estate agent how they feel about leased solar panels and I guarantee they’ll have a story or two about the leases nearly killing real estate transactions for one reason or another.

Assuming a Solar Lease Sucks for Buyers

Solar leases transfer to new owners at the point of sale and it’s almost always a huge hassle for the parties involved if the lease is still active. If there’s an active lease the buyers must qualify for the lease as part of their debt-to-income ratio which means the lease payments will factor into a buyer’s monthly debt obligations and can essentially disqualify otherwise qualified buyers if the extra $50 - $100 a month reduces their pre-qualification amount.

For instance, let’s say a buyer is qualified for payment on a house up to $650k but the house has a solar lease on it that’s adding $100 a month to their debt obligations which then changes their pre-qualified amount down to $642k. As the seller of this hypothetical house, does that sound like a solar lease that’s adding 4% in value to your house instantaneously? No.

Buyers have to apply for the lease at the solar company and qualify there, provide documentation of the lease to their mortgage underwriters, and go through the incredibly elaborate process of creating an account at the solar company and getting this all done before closing while also going through due diligence processes on the house and getting all the required mortgage documentation to their lender.

One way sellers can get around putting buyers through all that is to pay down the remaining lease balance before listing their home. Depending on the terms of the solar lease and installation this can mean a few different things, sometimes solar panels are just owned outright (which is awesome) and the lease has been fulfilled so none of the qualification and application components apply. That’s also how it works if a homeowner paid for the solar panels in cash and bought them outright at the point of installation.

However, sometimes solar companies have terms that state that if the lease has been paid off they are still responsible for servicing the solar panels for the initial duration of the lease and technically they still own them until the end of the lease term. I had some buyers under contract on a house in Littleton with this scenario. They still had to create an account with the solar company and provide documentation of the “encumbered items” to their lender as part of underwriting even though they didn’t have to actually pay for the panels or the lease themselves.

This is where things got really fun. The underwriter determined that the way the solar contract was written didn’t play nice with the required lender foreclosure language in the event that the lender had to foreclose on the property. The solar company the sellers used had been acquired by another solar company who immediately laid off all staff, so nobody that we talked to had any idea how to help us. We needed a specific document from them that had to be executed by management and sent back to the mortgage underwriter.

This process took 3 weeks to accomplish and nearly resulted in the buyers being forced to terminate the contract on financing availability. It was mind-blowing for both buyer and seller as well as us agents. We had sellers who wanted to sell, buyers who wanted to buy, and a lender who very much wanted to originate a mortgage but the whole thing was being held hostage by a defunct solar company for a system whose lease had already been paid off.

Future Outlook

If Time’s prediction that the residential solar industry is on the brink of collapsing turns out to be true there is going to be a lot of pain for sellers who have leased panels on their homes. If you have a leased system make sure that you have all of the documents associated with it in a safe location.

I’m not saying that all solar leases or residential solar systems are bad, solar feels objectively like the right thing to do for the future of our planet. It should be more accessible in America and less of a minefield for consumers to get panels installed properly and transparently.

If you’re going to sign on for a leased system make sure that you understand the nuances of the contract and you have all of the documentation readily available well before you consider selling your home. Tell your broker about the system and have them talk to their preferred lender to see if they can review the documentation before listing to determine if there are any holes or problems with it.

Or, if you can afford it, consider buying panels outright. I guess the real punchline here is you should always think twice before buying something from a stranger who knocks on your door, because you never know what you’re actually going to get.